Everyone loves betting on the NFL. However, knowing which bets to make is critical. It’s also important to know which bets you should avoid making.
Today, I have four bets you should avoid making this weekend. I also have four bets in the same games you should make instead. Let’s dive into it!
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NFL Week 2 Bets to Fade
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Tennessee Titans
Avoid Betting Ryan Tannehill Over 217.5 Passing Yards (-115)
- DeAndre Hopkins didn’t practice Friday with an ankle injury, putting his Week 2 availability in doubt. Even if he plays, the star receiver won’t be anywhere near 100%.
- The Chargers surrendered 466 passing yards to Tua Tagovailoa and 215 receiving yards to Tyreek Hill. However, they held everyone in check. Jaylen Waddle (78) was the only other Miami Dolphin with over 44 receiving yards.
- While Los Angeles struggled in Week 1, they held quarterbacks to only 217.2 passing yards per game in 2022, the sixth-fewest in the NFL.
- Last week, Tannehill had only 198 passing yards on 34 attempts. By comparison, he averaged 211.3 passing yards per game last season.
Instead, Bet Justin Herbert Over 277.5 Passing Yards (-115)
- Yes, Herbert had only 229 passing yards last week. However, he had 33 pass attempts in the game. That would have been his third-lowest total in a game last year.
- The Chargers could be without Austin Ekeler this week because of an ankle injury. If even the superstar plays, he and Joshua Kelley won’t combine for 208 rushing yards as they did in Week 1. The Titans surrendered only 62.8 rushing yards per game to running backs a year ago.
- Tennessee gave up over 300 passing yards to Derek Carr last week on 33 attempts. Carr averaged 9.2 yards per attempt in Week 1, 14.1% higher than his career-high average in 2020 and 2019.
- More importantly, the Titans surrendered the fifth-most passing yards in Week 1 after giving up 4,931 passing yards to quarterbacks last season (290.1 per game), the most in the NFL.
Chicago Bears vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Avoid Betting Khalil Herbert Under 44.5 Rushing Yards (-130)
- Despite the under being the favored side of the bet (the over is +100), it’s the wrong side of the bet to take. The market is overreacting to the Bears’ poor Week 1 performance.
- Herbert had 27 rushing yards in last week’s blowout loss. Yet, he averaged 91.3 rushing yards per game in his three other career starts, including 100 yards against the Buccaneers as a rookie in 2021.
- Last week, Tampa Bay held Alexander Mattison to only 34 rushing yards on 11 attempts. However, Herbert is a home run-hitting runner. Last year, 17.1% of his rushing attempts were for 10 or more yards. By comparison, only 12.2% of Mattison’s rushing attempts totaled double figures.
- The Buccaneers’ so-called elite-run defense is overrated. Last season, they gave up 95 rushing yards per game to running backs, finishing around the league average.
Instead, Bet DJ Moore Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Unfortunately, his Bear debut was a bust. Moore had only two targets and a 5.4% target share. Yet, he still had 25 receiving yards and led the team in routes run in Week 1.
- Moore has had 89, 73, 120, 96, 55, 87, 69, and 117 receiving yards against the Buccaneers since his rookie year, averaging nearly 11 targets per game in those eight contests.
- Tampa Bay should have traded for the star receiver this offseason. Moore has averaged 6.4 receptions on 10.2 targets for 88.2 receiving yards in five career contests at Raymond James Stadium.
- The Buccaneers surrendered the fourth-most receiving yards to wide receivers in Week 1 (242), including 60 or more yards to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.
New York Giants vs. Arizona Cardinals
Avoid Betting James Conner Under 65.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
- Conner is the offense for Arizona right now. Last week, he had 14 rushing attempts for 62 yards against the Washington Commanders, finishing Week 1 with the 13th-most rushing yards among running backs.
- Yet, the Commanders had an elite run defense in 2022, holding running backs to the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game.
- By comparison, the Giants surrendered the fourth-most yards per game to running backs (118.8) in 2022. Last week, they gave up over 100 rushing yards to the Dallas Cowboys backfield.
- Last year, Conner proved he could be successful without Kyler Murray. The veteran averaged 76.5 rushing yards per game without the star quarterback, totaling 79 or more yards in 75% of the matchups.
Instead, Bet Darren Waller Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
- The Cardinals gave up the fourth-most receiving yards to tight ends in Week 1 (60) despite facing a limited Washington unit. Arizona also surrendered the second-most receiving yards to tight ends in 2022.
- Last week was disappointing for the Giants. Yet, Waller had three receptions for 36 receiving yards and a 21.7% target per route run rate despite playing only 54% of the snaps in the blowout loss.
- Waller averaged 48.5 receiving yards per game in the eight contests he played more than 15% of the snaps last season. The veteran also had six receptions for 50 receiving yards against the Cardinals last year despite playing only 55% of the snaps.
- More aggressive bettors should consider Waller’s alternative receiving yard lines of 50 or more (+115) and 75 or more (+350).
New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers
Avoid Betting Bryce Young Over 196.5 Passing Yards (-115)
- Young was pressured on over 45% of his pass attempts in Week 1 and got sacks four times. Carolina also lost starting guard Brady Christensen to a season-ending bicep injury last week.
- The Saints held quarterbacks to only 200 passing yards per game last season, the fewest in the NFL. They also surrendered under 200 passing yards in nearly half of the games.
- Last week, Ryan Tannehill struggled against the Saints. He had 198 passing yards on 34 attempts, throwing zero touchdowns and three interceptions despite having DeAndre Hopkins.
- New Orleans has held the last four rookie quarterbacks they faced to 192 passing yards per game, including only 148 passing yards per contest in the two matchups last season.
Instead, Bet Derek Carr Over 240.5 Passing Yards (-115)
- The Panthers surrendered only 115 passing yards in Week 1, the fourth-fewest in the NFL. However, that was on 18 pass attempts to Desmond Ridder.
- By comparison, Carolina gave up 241.1 passing yards per game last season, the 11th-most in the NFL. Unfortunately, the team won’t have stud cornerback Jaycee Horn for several weeks because of a hamstring injury.
- Carr had 305 passing yards in Week 1, the fifth-most in the league. More importantly, he has averaged over 253 passing yards per game in four of the past five years before this season.
- Some believe the veteran struggles when he isn’t playing in a dome. That’s not true. Last year, Carr had four games with 295 or more passing yards. Three of those contests were outdoors.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
