Heisman Odds After Week 4: Michael Penix Jr. Becomes Co-Favorite

Sep 23, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Washington Huskies quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) celebrates after throwing a touchdown pass against the California Golden Bears during the second quarter at Alaska Airlines Field at Husky Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY SportsWashington QB Michael Penix Jr. impressed once again in college football Week 4Penix Jr is now the co-favorite in the Heisman odds alongside USC’s Caleb WilliamsRead below for the updated Heisman odds after Week 4, plus analysis on the contenders

For the first time this NCAAF season, there isn’t a lone favorite in the Heisman odds. Washington pivot Michael Penix Jr. has pulled even with preseason favorite Caleb Williams in the latest Heiamn Trophy odds following another excellent performance.

Oregon quarterback Bo Nix is also rising in the latest Heisman odds, while Notre Dame pivot Sam Hartman is heading in the opposite direction following a heartbreaking loss.

Let’s take a look at the updated Heisman odds following Week 4, plus analyze the movement.

Heisman Odds

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Odds as of Sep. 23 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Use this FanDuel promo code to bet on the Heisman.

Michael Penix Jr. Heisman Odds

Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. is now dead even with USC’s Caleb Williams in the Heisman odds following Week 4 of the 2023 season. Penix Jr. completed 19 of 25 passes for 304 yards and four touchdowns in a blowout victory over California.

Oddsmakers were working overtime Saturday night, as they adjusted Penix’s Jr. Heisman futures during the late-night college football game that concluded around 2 a.m. ET. Penix entered the game with +480 odds to win the MVP trophy. By the time the third quarter ended, he was sitting at +380.

Michael Penix Jr. absolutely took OVER once again against California:

• 19/25 (76%)• 304 passing yards• 4 passing TD’s• 1 INT• 139.0 passer rating• led six scoring drives (5 TD, 1 FG)

Penix is already up to SIXTEEN passing TD’s on the season and has Washington… pic.twitter.com/ijHe1tMCa3

— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) September 24, 2023

An improvement of -100 might not seem significant, but oddsmakers are now saying they’ve seen enough from the Huskies’ pivot to place him on the same level as the repeat Heisman winner and consensus first pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Williams accounted for five touchdowns in a close victory over Arizona State, which led to his Heisman odds falling from +350 to +380. This more has to do with the Trojans’ underwhelming team performance and MPJ’s strong showing, rather than Williams’ individual effort.

Penix Jr. has thrown for the most yards in the country (1,636), although Williams isn’t far behind and has accounted for more touchdowns (18). The current Heisman race is setting the stage for a massive showdown between Penix’s Huskies and Caleb Williams’ Trojans on November 4th.

Bo Nix Heisman Odds

Oregon quarterback Bo Nix was nothing short of spectacular on Saturday against Colorado, orchestrating the offense like a maestro. The senior pivot led the Ducks to a 42-6 blowout victory that instantly quieted the Colorado hype train and vaulted Nix up the Heisman odds.

Nix completed 28 of 33 passes for 276 yards and three touchdowns in the route, exploiting every gap and hole in the CU defense. Not only did Nix excel in passing, but he also contributed to the team’s running game with a TD on the ground.

Bo Nix Stats vs Colorado

Metric	Value
Passes Completed	28
Pass Attempts	33
Passing Yards	276
Passing Touchdowns	3
Rushing Touchdowns	1

FanDuel Sportsbook was impressed with what Nix did against Colorado, adjusting the QB’s Heisman odds from +2000 to +1000 after the victory. While Nix has now entered the top-five Heiman favorites, he still remains in a separate tier from the top contenders.

Nix is certainly having a Heisman-calibre season thus far, completing 79.4% of his passes for 1,169 yards and 11 touchdowns with one interception. He hasn’t played his biggest games yet, however, as Nix’s Heisman case will likely be decided by what he does against Pac-12 powerhouses Washington and USC later in the year.

2024-25 CFP National Championship Odds: Georgia Are Early FavoritesRead More

Other Risers and Fallers in Week 4 Heisman Odds

While there was notable movement among the top Heisman favorites, there was also some movement further down the board. Notre Dame senior quarterback Sam Hartman saw his Heisman odds fade from +1000 to +2000 after coming up short in a close loss to Ohio State.

LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels saw a 36% increase in his odds to win the Heisman (+1600) after leading the Tigers to a win over Arkansas. Oklahoma’s Dillon Gabriel, meanwhile, saw a 20% increase (+2000) in his odds despite turning in his worst performance of the season in a win over Cincinnati.

Jayden Daniels & Malik Nabers continue to dominate🐯 pic.twitter.com/As7EuSaBHv

— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 24, 2023

Colorado quarterback Shadeur Sanders experienced one of the biggest falls in the Heisman odds in years after his team was bullied by Oregon. Sanders’ Heisman odds at FanDuel plummetted from +2500 to +20000 after the game, which is a staggering 700% change.

One quarterback whom the oddsmakers are slowly weeding out of the top group of contenders is Michigan’s JJ McCarthy. For the second straight week, the Wolverines pivot witnessed his Heisman odds drop significantly. This time, McCarthy faded from +2200 to +3500 after only managing one TD in a win over Rutgers.

 

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