Mariners vs Tigers – Odds, Predictions & Prop Picks for Kirby vs Skubal

Aug 7, 2024; Seattle, Washington, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal (29) throws the ball to first base for force out on Seattle Mariners second baseman Jorge Polanco (7) during the sixth inning at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY SportsOne of the best pitching matchups the AL has to offer goes on Tuesday as Seattle’s George Kirby faces Detroit’s Tarik SkubalSkubal is the odds-on favorite to win the AL Cy Young while Kirby is top ten in ERA and WHIPSee the Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers odds, player-prop picks, and predictions on Aug 13

While only one of the teams is still relevant in the playoff race, Tuesday’s game between the Seattle Mariners (63-56, 26-30 away) and Detroit Tigers (56-63, 26-31 home) features an outstanding matchup on the mound. Detroit sends ace Tarik Skubal – the favorite in the AL Cy Young odds – to the hill against budding Seattle superstar George Kirby.

First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 pm ET at Comerica Park in Detroit.

With Skubal on the hill at home, Detroit is a slight favorite in the Mariners vs Tigers odds, but neither team is in plus-money.

Mariners vs Tigers Odds

Tuesday’s MLB odds list the Tigers at -116 with the M’s coming back at -102. On the runline, Seattle is priced at +164 to win by multiple runs while Detroit is -200 to keep the score within a run.

The over/under is a miniscule 7.0 with the over only slightly favored at -115. The low total isn’t just a product of the pitching  matchup; Seattle has the third-best under record in the MLB this year at 51-62-6 O/U. That said, Detroit is 12 games to the over (63-51-5 O/U).

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Odds as of Aug. 13 at FanDuel. Claim a FanDuel promo code to bet on Tuesday’s MLB games. 

The Mariners are in a pitched battle with the Houston Astros for top spot in the AL West. The Astros, who own an MLB-best six-game win streak, hold a half-game lead on the M’s heading into Tuesday, which has dropped Seattle as far as +155 in the MLB division odds.

Winning the division may be Seattle’s only route to the postseason. Despite riding a four-game win streak of their own, the Mariners remain two games back of the final AL Wild Card with the Boston Red Sox also two back.

Seattle vs Detroit MLB Betting Splits

The public is divided when it comes to the Mariners/Tigers moneyline. As of 11:30 am ET, the Mariners are getting 55% of moneyline handle in the MLB public betting splits. On the runline, the public is siding more significantly with the Tigers, who are currently getting 69% of runline handle at +1.5 (-200).

The public’s biggest lean comes on the total, where 81% of handle has been wagered on over 7.0 runs.

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Tuesday’s matchup between Skubal and Kirby will be their second meeting in less than a week. Skubal powered the Tigers to a 6-2 win in Seattle on Aug. 7, throwing seven innings of three-hit, two-run ball with nine strikeouts. Kirby lasted 5.0 innings, allowing three runs on seven hits and a walk with seven strikeouts.

George Kirby vs Tarik Skubal

KirbyVSSkubal

Kirby has been a pillar in the Seattle rotation since reaching the bigs two years ago, and he’s lowered his ERA each season (3.39 as a rookie in 2022, 3.35 in 2023, and 3.13 so far this season). He’s (mostly) been getting better as the season has gone on, as well. Kirby had an ERA of 4.05 on June 4, lowering almost a full run over his last 11 starts.

His last few starts against Detroit, however, have all been pretty ugly. As mentioned, last time out he was rocked for seven hits and a walk over just 5.0 innings (1.60 WHIP). His previous start against the Tigers (July 15, 2023) saw him give up six runs on eight hits and a walk over 5.0 innings of work.

The start prior, he allowed four runs on six hits and three walks over just 4.0 innings. Seattle is just 1-3 straight-up in Kirby’s four career starts against Detroit. The current iteration of the Tiger lineup has a .243 average and .769 OPS against Kirby in 37 ABs. Jake Rogers and Javy Baez have each taken him yard once.

For Skubal, last Wednesday’s gem against Seattle was a much-needed bounceback game. In his previous outing, he was rocked for five runs on seven hits and two walks by the Royals (though he still managed to strikeout eight over 6.1 innings). That marked his first loss since June 19 and ended a run of four straight wins, with four no-decisions mixed in.

Skubal has racked up excellent numbers against the Seattle hitters in his four-plus years in the bigs. Cumulatively, they are hitting just .197 with a .623 OPS in 61 ABs. Mitch Garvers, Jorge Polanco, and Cal Raleigh have each taken Skubal yard once, but as a group, the M’s have 19 Ks and just 12 hits.

Mariners vs Tigers Prediction

It’s always nerve-wracking backing this abysmal Detroit offense, which sits 26th in the majors in wRC+ (89) and 28th in wOBA (.294) but they have a solid-enough history against Kirby, while Skubal has absolutely owned the Seattle hitters.

Skubal is listed with a strikeout prop of 7.5 (-116o/-110u), a number he’s gone over in three straight. While deadline additions have slightly altered the face of the Mariner lineup, Seattle still owns the highest strikeout rate in the entire majors (27.8%). I expect Skubal to make it four straight with eight-plus strikeouts.

SEA vs DET picks:

Tigers first 5 innings moneyline (-120)Skubal over 7.5 Ks (-116)

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