NFL Rankings Update and Analysis: Week 8
October 28, 2015 – by Seth Trachtman
Coming into NFL Week 8, here’s how our NFL predictive ratings see all 32 teams, and how our rankings compare to the human-driven ESPN.com NFL Power Rankings.
Quick Rankings Primer
When we refer to the TR rankings, we mean our NFL predictive rankings, which are our core measure of team strength. These rankings are designed, as the name implies, to predict future outcomes of games.
Our rankings are driven by margins of victory. Unlike human voters and opinions, they don’t care only about wins and losses, which can be highly influenced by luck (e.g. a poorly timed fumble). More specifically, this means:
A team that loses a game can still move up in our rankings (e.g. if they lose by less than expected)A team that wins a game can still move down our rankings (e.g. if they win by less than expected)A team with several losses can still be ranked highly (e.g. if they have faced a tough schedule, or potentially just had a few fluke losses)
In addition, our rankings factor in a blend of season performance to date plus each team’s preseason rating, since the results of a small number of early season games can often be misleading. However, the impact of preseason ratings (which you can reference on our NFL rankings page) decays as the season goes on.
General Highlights Entering NFL Week 8
No changes at the top of the charts. Three of our top five teams were on bye during Week 7, and the week was lacking major upsets at the top. As a result, the top 11 teams in our predictive rankings are unchanged this week. New England did lose a little ground in the ratings with a closer than expected seven point win vs. the Jets at home, but they’re still well ahead of the rest of the NFL.Oakland continues their turnaround with a big win. The Raiders saw the biggest increase in the predictive ratings this week after beating San Diego 37-29 on the road. The Raiders led 37-6 going into the fourth quarter, and would have seen an even bigger boost if they’d done a better job foiling the Charger fourth quarter comeback. (An interesting question we discuss is how “garbage time” results should impact our predictive ratings.)The Rams had the biggest jump in the rankings. St. Louis jumped four spots in the predictive rankings, but that gain was largely cosmetic. A modest rise in their predictive rating caused them to leapfrog some similarly rated teams, as several teams in the middle of the pack, including Buffalo and San Diego, faltered. It seems like the Rams have started to find an offense over the last three games with the arrival of first-round pick Todd Gurley.The poor get poorer in the AFC South. The Colts were the second biggest loser in the predictive ratings after losing at home to New Orleans by six points. They still lead the AFC South at 3-4, while Houston was also on the biggest losers list after getting shelled by 18 points at Miami. Jacksonville was one of the biggest gainers after winning their second game of the season, but the Jaguars are still dead last in the predictive rankings. Meanwhile, Tennessee has now lost five games in a row after losing to Atlanta by a field goal, and remain No. 30.Week 8 has some very exciting matchups. It starts off on Thursday with our No. 1 team, New England, facing the apparently revitalized Dolphins. Miami has been on our biggest gainers list in consecutive weeks, and are all the way up to No. 13 in our rankings. The No. 5 Bengals visit No. 7 Pittsburgh on Sunday, and Ben Roethlisberger is expected to return after a four game absence. Sunday night features No. 2 Green Bay at No. 3 Denver.
Biggest Gainers Last Week
| Team | Rating | Change | New Rank | Old Rank | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakland | -3.8 | +0.8 | 25 | 28 | W 37-29 @ #17 San Diego |
| Carolina | 2.2 | +0.7 | 10 | 10 | W 27-16 vs. #8 Philadelphia |
| New Orleans | -1.9 | +0.7 | 22 | 23 | W 27-21 @ #12 Indianapolis |
| St Louis | 0.1 | +0.7 | 16 | 20 | W 24-6 vs. #25 Cleveland |
| Seattle | 5.9 | +0.6 | 4 | 4 | W 20-3 @ #26 San Francisco |
| Miami | 1.0 | +0.6 | 13 | 15 | W 44-26 vs. #24 Houston |
| Jacksonville | -7.4 | +0.6 | 32 | 32 | W 34-31 vs. #16 Buffalo |
| Kansas City | 1.2 | +0.5 | 12 | 14 | W 23-13 vs. #7 Pittsburgh |
| Minnesota | 1.8 | +0.4 | 11 | 11 | W 28-19 @ #22 Detroit |
| Tampa Bay | -7.1 | +0.3 | 31 | 31 | L 31-30 @ #27 Washington |
Biggest Losers Last Week
| Team | Rating | Change | New Rank | Old Rank | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego | -0.8 | -1.0 | 20 | 17 | L 37-29 vs. #28 Oakland |
| Indianapolis | 0.5 | -0.8 | 15 | 12 | L 27-21 vs. #23 New Orleans |
| Buffalo | -0.3 | -0.7 | 18 | 16 | L 34-31 vs. #32 Jacksonville |
| Pittsburgh | 3.1 | -0.6 | 7 | 7 | L 23-13 @ #14 Kansas City |
| Cleveland | -4.0 | -0.6 | 26 | 25 | L 24-6 @ #20 St. Louis |
| San Francisco | -4.8 | -0.6 | 28 | 26 | L 20-3 vs. #4 Seattle |
| Philadelphia | 2.9 | -0.5 | 8 | 8 | L 27-16 @ #10 Carolina |
| Houston | -3.5 | -0.5 | 24 | 24 | L 44-26 @ #15 Miami |
| Detroit | -3.0 | -0.4 | 23 | 22 | L 28-19 vs. #11 Minnesota |
| New England | 9.3 | -0.4 | 1 | 1 | W 30-23 vs. #9 NY Jets |
The TR NFL Rankings: Week 8 Edition
We compared our Predictive Rankings to the ESPN.com power rankings, which were updated on Tuesday, October 27.
Teams We Like Better Than ESPN: Denver, Seattle, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Kansas City, Baltimore, Indianapolis, Buffalo, Dallas, San Diego, Detroit, HoustonTeams ESPN Likes More Than We Do: Cincinnati, NY Jets, Carolina, St. Louis, Atlanta, NY Giants, New Orleans, Oakland, Cleveland, Washington, San Francisco, Tampa Bay
| Team | TR Rank | ESPN Rank | TR Change | ESPN Change | Rating | Result | SOS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England (6-0) | 1 | 1 | 9.3 | W 30-23 vs. #9 NY Jets | 0.3 | ||
| Green Bay (6-0) | 2 | 2 | 7.1 | Bye | -1.5 | ||
| Denver (6-0) | 3 | 4 | -1 | 6.1 | Bye | -0.1 | |
| Seattle (3-4) | 4 | 9 | +3 | 5.9 | W 20-3 @ #26 San Francisco | 1.1 | |
| Cincinnati (6-0) | 5 | 3 | +2 | 4.8 | Bye | 0.6 | |
| Arizona (5-2) | 6 | 6 | -2 | 4.7 | W 26-18 vs. #13 Baltimore | -1.7 | |
| Pittsburgh (4-3) | 7 | 10 | 3.1 | L 23-13 @ #14 Kansas City | 2.0 | ||
| Philadelphia (3-4) | 8 | 15 | -6 | 2.9 | L 27-16 @ #10 Carolina | 0.1 | |
| NY Jets (4-2) | 9 | 8 | 2.4 | L 30-23 @ #1 New England | 0.5 | ||
| Carolina (6-0) | 10 | 5 | +1 | 2.2 | W 27-16 vs. #8 Philadelphia | -1.7 | |
| Minnesota (4-2) | 11 | 11 | +4 | 1.8 | W 28-19 @ #22 Detroit | -0.7 | |
| Kansas City (2-5) | 12 | 22 | +2 | +7 | 1.2 | W 23-13 vs. #7 Pittsburgh | 2.4 |
| Miami (3-3) | 13 | 13 | +2 | +8 | 1.0 | W 44-26 vs. #24 Houston | -2.7 |
| Baltimore (1-6) | 14 | 26 | -1 | +2 | 0.7 | L 26-18 @ #6 Arizona | 2.1 |
| Indianapolis (3-4) | 15 | 18 | -3 | -7 | 0.5 | L 27-21 vs. #23 New Orleans | -1.3 |
| St Louis (3-3) | 16 | 12 | +4 | +6 | 0.1 | W 24-6 vs. #25 Cleveland | 1.8 |
| Atlanta (6-1) | 17 | 7 | +1 | 0.0 | W 10-7 @ #30 Tennessee | -1.6 | |
| Buffalo (3-4) | 18 | 19 | -2 | -2 | -0.3 | L 34-31 vs. #32 Jacksonville | -0.6 |
| Dallas (2-4) | 19 | 20 | -4 | -0.6 | L 27-20 @ #21 NY Giants | 1.4 | |
| San Diego (2-5) | 20 | 21 | -3 | -8 | -0.8 | L 37-29 vs. #28 Oakland | 0.2 |
| NY Giants (4-3) | 21 | 14 | -0.8 | W 27-20 vs. #19 Dallas | -1.5 | ||
| New Orleans (3-4) | 22 | 17 | +1 | +3 | -1.9 | W 27-21 @ #12 Indianapolis | 0.7 |
| Detroit (1-6) | 23 | 31 | -1 | -7 | -3.0 | L 28-19 vs. #11 Minnesota | 1.4 |
| Houston (2-5) | 24 | 29 | -3 | -3.5 | L 44-26 @ #15 Miami | -1.1 | |
| Oakland (3-3) | 25 | 16 | +3 | +7 | -3.8 | W 37-29 @ #17 San Diego | 0.2 |
| Cleveland (2-5) | 26 | 24 | -1 | +3 | -4.0 | L 24-6 @ #20 St. Louis | 0.0 |
| Washington (3-4) | 27 | 23 | -1 | -4.8 | W 31-30 vs. #31 Tampa Bay | -0.8 | |
| San Francisco (2-5) | 28 | 27 | -2 | -8 | -4.8 | L 20-3 vs. #4 Seattle | 2.5 |
| Chicago (2-4) | 29 | 25 | -5.2 | Bye | 1.6 | ||
| Tennessee (1-5) | 30 | 30 | -5.9 | L 10-7 vs. #18 Atlanta | -2.6 | ||
| Tampa Bay (2-4) | 31 | 28 | +3 | -7.1 | L 31-30 @ #27 Washington | -3.7 | |
| Jacksonville (2-5) | 32 | 32 | -7.4 | W 34-31 vs. #16 Buffalo | -0.4 |
“Rating” refers to the team’s predictive rating, which is points better than an average team on a neutral field“SOS” refers to the team’s strength of schedule rating for games played so far this season
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