We’re on an insane 7-1-1 run in the last 10 days with our soccer plays, which includes a 3-0 sweep with last weekend’s Premier League best bets. Matchday 11 gets underway on Saturday, and I’m looking to stay hot on the pitch. Let’s dive into some of the key matchups, check out the betting odds, and lock in a few best bets in England!
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Premier League Matchday 10 Preview & Best Bets (2023)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Nottingham Forest (+310) vs. Aston Villa (-115), DRAW (+275) | 2.5 (-135/+105)
The Sunday morning opener is an interesting matchup as the red-hot Villans hit the road to take on the Trees. Forest is currently 16th in the table (10 points) while the visitors reside in fifth (22 points). This contest gets underway at 9:00 a.m. ET from The City Ground in Nottingham.
Nottingham Forest was able to stay afloat in the top flight in English soccer a year ago thanks to their home form. They went 8-6-5 at The City Ground, which guided them to a 16th-place finish. That may be the case again this campaign as Steve Cooper’s men remain unbeaten at home, getting out to a 1-3-0 start.
I say the streak ends on Sunday, and I’ll ride with Aston Villa on the moneyline. The fifth-place squad has been excellent recently, going 5-1-0 over their last six matches across all competitions. Meanwhile, Forest is winless since its 1-0 road victory over Chelsea on September 2nd (0-4-2), only managing draws against Burnley, Brentford, Crystal Palace, and Luton Town. This is a huge step up in competition against an Aston Villa side that’s firing on all cylinders. I’ll take the Villans to collect the three points on Sunday morning.
Bet: Aston Villa Moneyline (-115)
Luton Town (+1000) vs. Liverpool (-425), DRAW (+600) | 3.5 (-105/-120)
The Sunday nightcap pits newcomer Luton Town against Liverpool. The Hatters have managed just five points since getting called up to the Premier League, going 1-2-7. As for Liverpool, it appears they’re on their way to a top-four finish, residing in fourth with 23 points (7-2-1). This contest is slated for 11:30 a.m. ET from Kenilworth Road in Luton.
With the Reds missing Champions League play this year, it feels as if they’re on a revenge tour to secure a spot on the continent’s biggest stage. Six of their seven domestic victories have come by at least two goals, and I’ll say Jurgen Klopp’s crew does it again on Sunday.
This is a favorable matchup for Liverpool considering Luton Town is 18th in xGA (19.9). Meanwhile, the visitors lead the Premier League in xG at 22.3. Their 1.02 xGD/90 rate is the fourth-highest in the PL. They’re pretty healthy and have rattled off four straight victories, so I’ll back Liverpool to earn a multi-goal win against a Hatters squad that has the second-shortest odds to be relegated at -500 (Sheffield, -1600).
Bet: Liverpool -2.0 (+100)
Tottenham (+115) vs. Chelsea (+210), DRAW (+280) | 2.5 (-155/+120)
One of the marquee fixtures this weekend sees an upward-trending Chelsea team (11th, 12 points) hit the road to take on first-place Tottenham (26 points). Kickoff is scheduled for 3:00 p.m. ET from Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London.
What’s interesting about the Spurs is that their metrics don’t match up to those of a first-place team. They’re just ninth in xG so far at 17.6. Which, the step back in offensive production makes sense considering Harry Kane’s departure. Son Heung-Min has stepped up in his absence, leading the team with eight goals. The next-closest player is James Maddison (3), and no one else has scored three times.
Meanwhile, the offensive woes have continued for Chelsea. They’ve scored just 13 times this season (10th) and they own an xG rate of 18.2, which is right above Tottenham at eighth. This simply isn’t a dynamic offense, and they do not have anyone on the roster who has scored at least four goals this campaign. So, all things considered, I think we see the defenses rise up. Chelsea has been excellent in their own half. If they can neutralize Son’s offensive ability, I think this game comes in comfortably under the total. Give me the under on Monday afternoon.
Bet: Under 2.5 (+120)
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