It’s hard to believe, but the 2023-2024 Champions League group stage wraps up today.
Two tickets to the knockout stage are still up for grabs, coming in Groups F and H. If you’re looking for a full breakdown of each group’s scenarios, check out this article from ESPN.
As for this piece, I’ll be serving up my three best bets for today’s eight-match slate. Let’s dive into where I’m laying my money on Matchday 6.
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Today’s Champions League Best Bets
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | Soccer Betting Record 2023-2024: 38-40 (-7.98 units)
Young Boys (+700) vs. RB Leipzig (-285), DRAW (+500) | O/U 2.5 (+110/-135)
Group G is one of the groups that’s 100% cemented heading into today’s action. Reigning champion Manchester City took the top spot (15 points) while RB Leipzig (nine), Young Boys (four) and Red Star (one) filed into place behind. This matchup comes in the early window, getting underway at 12:45 p.m. ET from Red Bull Arena in Leipzig, Germany.
Even though this is technically a meaningless contest, I still anticipate Leipzig dominating in front of its home crowd. The Red Bull are 4-0-0 in their last four home matches, out-scoring the opposition 14-3. They’ve managed to cover the 1.5-goal spread in three of those four competitions.
This is simply a favorable matchup for Leipzig, who handled Young Boys 3-1 in Switzerland back in September. Marco Rose’s bunch boasts a high-octane offense, a unit that has notched 34 goals in 14 domestic German matches (2.43 GPG) while adding 11 over five UCL competitions (2.2 GPG). Their task is to run up the score up against a Swiss side that owns the highest xGA rate in the group, sitting at 14.5. They also have an xGD/90 rate of -1.94, so the analytics say it’s not too outlandish for the German side to stretch this lead out. Factor in the home-field advantage, and I think Leipzig cruises this afternoon.
Bet: RB Leipzig -1.5 (-115)
AC Milan (+270) vs. Newcastle (-105), DRAW (+290) | O/U 2.5 (-140/+115)
We shouldn’t be surprised one bit that teams in Group F are still jockeying for position. This is the patented “Group of Death,” which features Dortmund (10 points), PSG (seven), Newcastle (five) and AC Milan (five). Dortmund is already through, but none of the bottom three teams have been eliminated. This contest falls in the second window, which is scheduled for 3:00 p.m. ET from St. James’ Park in Newcastle upon Tyne, England.
The Magpies haven’t been too sharp overall recently; however, their home form has been exceptional. They’ve gone 8-0-1 in their last nine home matches, out-scoring the opposition 18-3! That stretch includes six clean sheets. So, I think it’s safe to say Newcastle has a home-pitch advantage. I’ll take them to collect the three points today.
For reference, the two sides played to a 0-0 draw back in September, a match where Milan won the possession battle 52.5% to 47.5%. It’ll be different this time, as Newcastle’s home crowd will play a big role. Factor in those six clean sheets combined with the Italian side only scoring three goals this term (0.6 GPG), and I don’t think it’ll take much offense for the Magpies to win.
Bet: Newcastle Moneyline (-105)
Paris Saint-Germain (-110) vs. Borussia Dortmund (+270), DRAW (+310) | O/U 3.5 (+135/-170)
I laid out most of Group F’s scenario above, but PSG and Newcastle need a Borussia Dortmund victory to stay alive. Meanwhile, Dortmund can still squander the top spot if they lose at their home ground. This contest gets underway at 3:00 p.m. ET from Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund, Germany.
The German side hasn’t been too sharp recently, going just 0-1-2 in its last three matches. That includes a 3-2 home defeat at the hands of Leipzig in their recent Bundesliga contest. When the dust settles on Wednesday afternoon, I think there’s a decent chance that we end in a tie. For starters, both teams will be bringing their A-games, as Dortmund wants to avoid falling into second while PSG wants to simply advance. All the French side has to do is earn a point to secure a spot in the knockout round.
The BVB have played in a ton of lower-scoring matches this campaign, seeing only nine combined goals in their five matches. They’ve out-scored the opposition 6-3 over the five matches, which includes keeping two clean sheets at home. I expect goals to be tough to come by, so I’m anticipating this match ending in the 0-0 or 1-1 range. Let’s take a shot with the +310 payout that comes with a draw.
Bet: Draw (+310)
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