NFL Week 11 Rankings + Projections Update: Bills, Titans Up

NFL Week 11 Rankings + Projections Update: Bills, Titans Up

November 15, 2018 – by Seth Trachtman

In this post we highlight our biggest NFL Week 11 rankings and predictions changes, after a week that featured surprising wins by the Bills and Titans.

Want to maximize your edge in pools and betting this week? Our NFL survivor picks, NFL pick’em pool picks, and NFL betting picks are all posted for NFL Week 11.

NFL Week 11 Rankings Updates

Here are the biggest increases in team predictive rating heading into Week 11. Our predictive ratings are measured in points, with a 0.0 rating equivalent to a “perfectly average” team on a neutral field:

Team	Result	Old Rank	New Rank	Old Rating	New Rating	Rating Change
Buffalo	W 41-10 at NYJ	32	32	-9.4	-7.4	2.0
New Orleans	W 51-14 at CIN	3	1	6.3	7.9	1.6
Tennessee	W 34-10 vs. NE	20	17	-1.1	0.4	1.5
Pittsburgh	W 52-21 vs. CAR	5	4	5.0	6.2	1.2
Washington	W 16-3 at TB	21	18	-1.1	-0.3	0.8

The Bills showed signs of life. While they’re still our last-ranked team, their 41-10 win over the Jets, led by recently added QB Matt Barkley, showed that they’re not quite as bad as many people thought.

New Orleans made a big jump in our rankings from #3 to #1 after blowing out the Bengals on the road. The Saints have now won eight straight games, and they’ve done so recently against some formidable opponents like the Redskins, Ravens, Vikings, and Rams. Their 37-point win over the Bengals exceeded expectations by about 33.5 points, based on our predictive ratings.

The Steelers also moved up one spot in our rankings after dominating Carolina on Thursday night. After starting the year 1-2-1, Pittsburgh has won five straight games.

See where every team currently stands in our NFL rankings.

NFL Week 11 Projected Wins Updates

Here are the top gainers in projected total wins for the 2018 season heading into Week 11:

Team	Result	Old Proj Wins	New Proj Wins	Proj Wins Change
Buffalo	W 41-10 at NYJ	4.2	5.4	1.2
Tennessee	W 34-10 vs. NE	8.0	9.0	1.0
New Orleans	W 51-14 at CIN	12.0	12.8	0.8
Cleveland	W 28-16 vs. ATL	5.0	5.8	0.8
Dallas	W 27-20 at PHI	6.8	7.6	0.8

With 5.4 wins, we currently project the Bills to get the seventh pick in the draft. Can you guess who we project to finish with the least wins and get the first pick?

The Saints win projection increased by nearly a full win, though they are still projected slightly behind the LA Rams in the NFC. Regardless, both teams are looking like solid bets for first round byes in the playoffs.

Cleveland (3-6-1) gets ever closer to their preseason Vegas over/under of 5.5 wins after defeating the Falcons at home, and we now project them to as slight favorites to go over that win total. It’s unclear if this news is related to the big win, but interim head coach Gregg Williams will interview for the permanent job.

See our latest projected season win totals for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 11 Division Winner Odds Updates

The following teams increased their odds to win their division the most last week:

Team	Division	Result	Old Div Win Odds	New Div Win Odds	Odds Change
Washington	NFC East	W 16-3 at TB	41.5%	59.6%	18.1%
Pittsburgh	AFC North	W 52-21 vs. CAR	70.9%	87.5%	16.6%
New Orleans	NFC South	W 51-14 at CIN	74.0%	90.5%	16.5%
Tennessee	AFC South	W 34-10 vs. NE	20.5%	33.6%	13.1%
Dallas	NFC East	W 27-20 at PHI	11.5%	20.4%	8.9%

Washington’s win on Sunday, paired with Philadelphia home loss to the Cowboys, puts the Redskins in the driver’s seat for the NFC East title with a two-game lead over both teams. The Redskins still have to play the Eagles twice and Dallas once on the road, so the division race is far from over.

The Steelers and Saints have all but wrapped up their respective divisions. It would be Pittsburgh’s third straight AFC North title and their fourth in five seasons. Pittsburgh helped the Saints by defeating Carolina last week, as New Orleans tries to make it back-to-back NFC South division wins.

See our latest division winner odds for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 11 Playoffs Odds Updates

The following teams increased their odds to make the playoffs the most last week:

Team	Result	Old Playoffs Odds	New Playoff Odds	Odds Change
Tennessee	W 34-10 vs. NE	27.5%	48.5%	21.0%
Washington	W 16-3 at TB	47.7%	68.0%	20.3%
Green Bay	W 31-12 vs. MIA	20.6%	32.8%	12.2%
Dallas	W 27-20 at PHI	13.3%	25.0%	11.7%
Pittsburgh	W 52-21 vs. CAR	83.5%	93.6%	10.1%

Tennessee is now nearly 50/50 to make the playoffs for the second straight year. It’s a remarkable recent turnaround for Mike Vrabel’s squad, with consecutive upset wins after their bye (at Dallas and vs. New England).

The Packers have a tough couple weeks ahead (at Seattle, at Minnesota), but did help themselves with a solid win vs. Miami. The last time the team missed the playoffs when QB Aaron Rodgers played a full season was 2008, his first year as a starter.

Dallas at least has a prayer to make the playoffs after their big win, which could save head coach Jason Garrett’s job. The team effectively went all-in on 2018 when they traded their first-round pick next year to the Raiders for WR Amari Cooper.

See our latest odds to make the playoffs for all teams on our NFL projections.

Until Next Week…

Enjoy NFL Week 11, and if you’re in an NFL pool or planning on betting some of the Week 11 games, please check out our premium products: NFL Survivor Picks, Football Pick’em Pool Picks, and NFL Betting Picks.

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