NFL Week 4 Rankings & Projections: No Problems In Houston

NFL Week 4 Rankings & Projections: No Problems In Houston (2019)

September 24, 2019 – by Seth Trachtman

Deshaun Watson and the Texans are in a race for the AFC South title (Photo by Stephen Lew/Icon Sportswire)

In this post we highlight our biggest rankings and predictions changes, after a week that featured big wins by Houston, Carolina, and Jacksonville.

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NFL Week 4 Rankings Updates

Here are the biggest increases in team predictive rating heading into Week 4. Our predictive ratings are measured in points, with a 0.0 rating equivalent to a “perfectly average” team on a neutral field:

Team	Division	Result	Old Rank	New Rank	Old Rating	New Rating	Rating Change
Carolina	NFC South	W 38-20 at ARI	19	15	-0.4	1.0	1.4
Jacksonville	AFC South	W 20-7 vs. TEN	20	16	-0.6	0.8	1.4
Houston	AFC South	W 27-20 at LAC	12	9	1.5	2.8	1.3
Chicago	NFC North	W 31-15 at WAS	13	11	1.4	2.5	1.1
Minnesota	NFC North	W 34-14 vs. OAK	9	5	3.1	4.1	1.0

No Cam Newton, no problem for Carolina. The Panthers crushed Arizona 38-20 after dropping consecutive home games vs. the Rams and Bucs in the first two weeks. Newton’s replacement, Kyle Allen, was able to exploit a Cardinals defense that has allowed 29.3 points per game (fourth most). A visit to Houston this week could be a better measure of Allen’s ability.

Nick Foles’ fractured collarbone could have effectively ended the Jaguars’ playoff hopes in Week 1, but rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew and the defense had other ideas. A week after nearly beating Houston on the road, the Jaguars cruised to a relatively easy win last Thursday over AFC South rival Tennessee. The Jags have a key matchup this week visiting Denver, who are still searching for their first win of the season.

The Texans, meanwhile, went on the road and defeated a Chargers team many pd would be among the AFC elite this season. Our predictive ratings had Houston as 5.5-point underdogs, but they won by a touchdown and have bounced back nicely from the thrilling Week 1 defeat at New Orleans.

See where every team currently stands in our NFL rankings.

NFL Week 4 Projected Wins Updates

Here are the top gainers in projected total wins for the 2019 season heading into Week 4:

Team	Division	Result	Old Proj Wins	New Proj Wins	Proj Wins Change
Houston	AFC South	W 27-20 at LAC	7.9	9.1	1.2
NY Giants	NFC East	W 32-31 at TB	4.6	5.7	1.1
Jacksonville	AFC South	W 20-7 vs. TEN	6.9	7.9	1.0
Carolina	NFC South	W 38-20 at ARI	6.6	7.6	0.9
New Orleans	NFC South	W 33-27 at SEA	8.3	9.1	0.8

Texans head coach Bill O’Brien has finished 9-7 in three of his five seasons in Houston, and the team is now projected to finish right on that number again after their upset win last week.

The Giants can thank rookie quarterback Daniel Jones, as well as Bucs kicker Matt Gay, for their first win of the season. New York now has to contend with star running back Saquon Barkley’s ankle sprain, which will cause him to miss the next 4-8 weeks. Even so, the projected six-win season would be their best result since 2016. If they can exceed that mark, a boat trip to Miami would be completely justified.

See our latest projected season win totals for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 4 Division Winner Odds Updates

The following teams increased their odds to win their division the most last week:

Team	Division	Result	Old Div Win Odds	New Div Win Odds	Odds Change
Houston	AFC South	W 27-20 at LAC	23.4%	38.3%	14.9%
New Orleans	NFC South	W 33-27 at SEA	35.0%	47.6%	12.6%
Dallas	NFC East	W 31-6 vs. MIA	57.6%	69.5%	11.9%
Kansas City	AFC West	W 33-28 vs. BAL	72.8%	84.2%	11.5%
LA Rams	NFC West	W 2-13 at CLE	46.9%	57.3%	10.4%

What a difference one upset win makes. Houston is now the projected favorite to win the AFC South at 38%, though the Colts aren’t far behind at 29% after getting their second win of the year as well. Tennessee plummeted after their road loss at Jacksonville. The AFC South looks like it will be the most wide open division in football this year, and is the only division where every team is currently given more than a 15% chance of winning the division title.

The Saints are hanging in without Drew Brees, as they defeated the Seahawks on the road with Teddy Bridgewater under center. The rest of the NFC South helped them out, as the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers both lost, leaving the Saints with a one-game lead over the other three division opponents. It doesn’t get easier for New Orleans though, as they have a tough test in Week 4, hosting the Cowboys.

Speaking of the Cowboys, Dallas is in the driver’s season in the NFC East after another win, along with losses by division foes Philadelphia and Washington. Their odds to win the division are nearly 70%, compared to Philly’s odds of just 26%.

Kansas City, meanwhile, saw their odds of winning the division jump even more, as the Chargers lost for a second time already this year. If the Chargers lose a third in a row, it will be in truly shocking fashion as they draw the Miami Dolphins in Week 4.

See our latest division winner odds for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 4 Playoffs Odds Updates

The following teams increased their odds to make the playoffs the most last week:

Team	Division	Result	Old Playoffs Odds	New Playoffs Odds	Playoffs Odds Change
Houston	AFC South	W 27-20 at LAC	35.9%	57.5%	21.5%
Jacksonville	AFC South	W 20-7 vs. TEN	18.5%	31.4%	12.9%
New Orleans	NFC South	W 33-27 at SEA	41.2%	53.3%	12.0%
Carolina	NFC South	W 38-20 at ARI	16.9%	25.6%	8.7%
LA Rams	NFC West	W 20-13 at CLE	75.3%	83.3%	8.0%

The Texans went all-in this year when they traded two first-round picks and a second rounder for Laremy Tunsil and Kenny Stills just before the season started, and the team’s odds to make the playoffs jumped nearly 22% after Week 3. A playoff appearance for head coach Bill O’Brien this season would be his fourth in six years with the team.

The Rams offense hasn’t looked like the 2018 version in the early going, but they’re still one of only seven undefeated teams remaining. LA’s 83% playoff odds currently lead the NFC, with the aid of a remaining schedule that’s in the bottom half of the league in terms of difficulty. They get their first break in the schedule in Week 4 against a coach that they saw plenty in recent years, as Bruce Arians (formerly coach of the Cardinals) brings the Buccaneers to Los Angeles.

See our latest odds to make the playoffs for all teams on our NFL projections.

Until Next Week…

Enjoy NFL Week 4, and if you’re in an NFL pool or planning on betting some of the Week 4 games, please check out our NFL Survivor Picks, Football Pick’em Pool Picks, and NFL Betting Picks.

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